Trusting the Process: How Dave Rennie’s Wallaby Rebuild is going and what it means for the Springbok games
South Africa will face Australia in the first of two matches on Sunday 12 September. The Springboks are runaway favourites and the Wallabies had a negative 60 points difference from their three Bledisloe Cup matches against New Zealand.
South African fans and the world’s eyes will be fixed on the 100th test heavyweight match up with the All Blacks on 25 September. History, though, has shown that the Boks should not overlook Australia (even at their worst).
Springboks v Wallabies are historically evenly matched
Indulge the academic in me that wants to look at historical evidence and trends for a moment. If we look at South Africa v Australia’s overall record, the Springboks have won 55% out of the 88 matches and the Wallabies have won 42% of those matches. More relevant for this purpose are the results in Australia, where the Wallabies have won 64% of their 39 matches in Australia against the Boks, South Africa has won 31% of those matches.
Since the inception of the Tri Nations / Rugby Championships (i.e. 1996), the Springboks have won four out of the 27 tests against the Wallabies in Australia. The Springboks won 13-14 in Perth in Nick Mallet’s unbeaten run and winning the Tri Nations in 1998, (which also marked the beginning of the Rod Macqueen era).
The Boks then won 19-22 in Perth in 2005 as defending Tri Nations champions and at the unceremonious ending of the Eddie Jones Wallaby tenure, when they lost 8 out of their last 9 matches. The 2009 Springboks won one out of two matches 25-32 in Brisbane on their way to winning the Tri Nations (Robbie Deans’ Wallabies managed to beat the Springboks when the All Blacks could not in that year). The last win in Australia by South Africa was in 2013 in Brisbane (12-38) when Heyneke Meyer’s Springboks beat every side except for the All Blacks.
This shows you that only the best of the best Springbok sides have gone to Australia and won. The Rass-naber Springboks are in the middle of submitting their claim to join the best of the best Springbok sides and they will have to play well in order to win even one of their next two matches against Australia.
Where is Australia in their rebuilding process?
When Dave Rennie was appointed as the Wallabies head coach in 2020, what was evident was that the Wallabies were at the start of a cycle of a new generation of players who could hopefully bring the team back to the top of world rugby. It has been a long time since Australia had a valid claim as the best rugby team in the world (2001). But hopes were placed on the new generation Wallabies who were part of the team that lost in the final of the under 20 World Championships in 2019. It is hoped that a team could be built towards the British and Irish Lions tour in 2025 and Australia hopefully hosting the Rugby World Cup in 2027.
So far, not great.
12 matches and only three wins in Rennie’s time (three draws as well). Australia’s best results also could also be questioned as in 2019 the All Blacks played a largely second-string side when they were beaten by the Wallabies 24-22 in Brisbane. The two wins against the French this year were against a second-string French team as most of the first option players were not selected due to the Top 14 playoffs and quarantine periods clashing. The three draws came from two matches against Argentina and the first match against the All Blacks in 2020.
Their team against the All Blacks for Sunday’s test match in Perth featured 10 players in the starting team with 16 or less test caps. It is a team with most players at or younger than 25 years of age. In comparison with the Springboks, who have most of their players in that 28-32 age range sweet spot where your best rugby is played, the Wallabies are toddlers.
There has also been a consistency in selections and a clear vision to build a team for 2023 and beyond. The likes of Taniela Tupou, Lukhan Salakia-Loto, Matt Philip, Rob Valetini, Marika Koroibete, Hunter Paisami, Tom Banks, Noah Lolesio and Reece Hodge have been selected in every match they have been available for. Given the results so far, perhaps Rennie should lean further into selecting players that will be in their prime for the 2025 Lions tour and 2027 Rugby World Cup.
It can be argued, though, that the likes of James Slipper, Nic White and James O’Connor are the experience needed to guide the growth of the next generation of players (like Angus Bell, Tate McDermott and Noah Lolesio). I personally would like to advocate for more minutes for game-breakers like Harry Wilson and Jordan Petaia to be persisted with.
What is worrying is that after 12 test matches, one is not able to pinpoint what the Australian team do well. It is not their set-piece, which has seen a breakdown in their lineout and relies on Slipper and Allan Alaalatoa to hold up their scrum. It is not their kicking game, especially if James O’Connor, Nic White and Reece Hodge are not starting. It is certainly not their defence. Their attack game, while a multi-phase structure being played off the scrumhalf is starting to emerge, still lacks either enough power runners or ingenuity to get behind defences.
The worst issue is that there has been a lot of brain dead rugby from the Wallabies the last few games. Basic errors have been the biggest blight in their twelve matches under Rennie. Nothing epitomizes this better than Tom Banks’ missed kick for touch after Jordie Barrett’s red card. One can stomach perhaps the first two intercepts in the first test against the All Blacks, but for there to be another three that followed after that shows a team with little awareness of what it takes to win rugby games. It is not only that errors are being made in pursuit of playing a particular way, which can be forgiven, it is that the same errors are being committed by the same players without much appreciation as to what was wrong in the first instance.
The Springboks should be wary
History has taught us that it takes the best Springbok teams (and usually some of the worst Wallaby teams) to win a match against Australia in Australia. Looking at where both teams are, those two primary ingredients are there.
There are other factors in the Boks’ favour: The Wallabies have not faced a team as strong up front and in their set-piece as the Springboks since Rennie took over. The South African defence is streets ahead of anything provided by New Zealand, Argentina and France’s 2nd team in the last two years. A combined Springbok and Wallaby 23 would feature (at best) Michael Hooper in the starting team and Tate McDermott, Samu Kerevi and Marika Koroibete.
A true warrior.
Three stand performances. Three tough results for Michael Hooper. #RugbyChampionship #AUSvNZL pic.twitter.com/FTKshq5Z5E
— Rugby Bits (@RugbyBits) September 5, 2021
With all that said, the Wallabies have shown the ability to rise to the challenge. Their victory against the All Blacks last year came a week after they lost 5-43 to the same team. Their series-clinching victory against France in 2021 came after an early red card to Koroibete. Perhaps the one thing that the Wallabies have shown to be good at is their ability to fight back and rise against adversity. Their next two matches against the Springboks should be the toughest tests the Wallabies have faced.
For the Springboks, it has also been two years since they have played the Wallabies and, arguably, two years since they have played a team that wants to keep the ball, play through multiple phases and wants to attack their defence in the wide channels. The Springbok game plan of uncompromising defence turning opponents’ mistakes into attack opportunities seems best suited to play against a Wallaby team that has become good at gifting points and opportunities away. But game breakers like Kerevi and Koroibete only need a little bit of space to create some magic – one botched rush up or one missed tackle could help those runners get behind the defence and then have McDermott cause havoc from the base of the ruck.
There may be calls from the public to play some of the second-stringers in the tests against the Wallabies or a similar team to the one that played Argentina in the first test in 14 August. That may be too much of a risk, considering we are playing the Wallabies away (the Boks’ first match in front of fans as well) and the team has not played in three weeks. If South Africa also willingly concedes their advantage in the forwards by not playing the likes of Kitshoff, Malherbe and Etzebeth, it provides the Wallabies with the platform for their loosies and their backs to shine. Perhaps only two or three second- or third-string players can be included in the squad for Sunday, but not more than that.
It will be interesting to see how the Springbok defence deal with McDermott and his Gregan-esque runs – tight forwards defending around the rucks will have to be vigilant to stop the snipes and the offloads to ball carrying forwards. Whoever is playing in the inside backs will have their hands full with defending against Samu Kerevi and his direct runs. Cheslin Kolbe will need all the arnica oil in the world in his matchup against Koroibete, who tirelessly looks for work and is never far away from where the ball is. James O’Connor and Hunter Paisami are likely to return for the matches against the Springboks and expect Reece Hodge to play more minutes as well, which should hopefully improve the backline. Michael Hooper might be the best player in the world right now and he will always put in an 8/10 performance.
Saying all that, it would be a disappointment if the Springboks do not win both matches against the Wallabies, even given the history and that they are playing away. A team that wants to sit at the top of the rugby world should be expected to dispose of a team still finding its feet at this level. It will be interesting to see if Jacques Nienaber’s men will be going out of their way to try and win the Rugby Championship or whether the development of the Springbok game plan and of second-string players is the priority. If the Rugby Championship is the priority, nothing but convincing bonus points wins will suffice, with the expectation that the All Blacks will be aiming for a full house of points in their two matches against Argentina.
For the Wallabies, some solace can be taken at looking at where the Springboks were six years ago and how quickly things in rugby can turn around. A similar rebuild project after a 61-22 loss in Pretoria led to one of the most dominant Wallabies sides ever in 1999 and 2000. Overseas-based players can now be selected to help with the rebuilding project. It is up to Rugby Australia and Rennie to have the stomach for some of these ugly results and growing pains to hopefully develop a team that can compete in 2023 and beyond.
My way-too-early Wallabies 15 to build towards the British and Irish Lions 2025 / RWC 2027:
- Angus Bell
- Brandon Paenga-Amosa / Lachlan Lonergan / Folau Fainga’a
- Taniela Tupou / Allan Alaalatoa
- Izack Rodda / Darcy Swain
- Matt Philip
- Lukhan Salakaia-Loto / Liam Wright / Lachie Swinton
- Michael Hooper / Fraser McReight
- Harry Wilson / Rob Valetini / Isi Naisarani
- Tate McDermott / Jake Gordon
- Noah Lolesio / Tom Lynagh / Will Harrson
- Andrew Kellaway / Jock Campbell / Filipo Daugunu
- Samu Kerevi / Hunter Paisami / Irae Simone
- Jordan Petaia / Len Ikitau
- Tom Wright / Louis Lynagh / Jake Maddocks
- Reece Hodge / Tom Banks
Duane Vermeulen And The Search For The Next Great Springbok 8
